TMC's efforts towards a Third Front in 2024

TMC entry in Goa is a surprise development but it has realized the need to replace Congress in several states. It has started work in Goa,Meghalaya,Tripura and Assam. The north eastern states have bengali diaspora and hence TMC finds easy connect with them and moreover being a regional party in the East, is able to connect with people more than a National Party which counts as strong appeal. It has strong support from IPAC’s Prashant Kishor who is doing the groundwork for her national expansion. 

Trinamool Congress is positioning itself as a National Party and is in fact aiding BJP’s “Congress Mukt Bharath” campaign. TMC Has concluded that Congress leadership does not have the capability to take on the BJP barring the Hindi Heartland where it has strong presence in Rajasthan,Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Down South, it still is a major force in Karnataka and Kerala. Replacing Congress in all these states requires a strong ground force and base for TMC or any other party seeking to form an opposition to BJP. This can happen only when Congress in those states splits to form splinter units like NCP, TMC, YCP did in their respective states and what Amarinder Singh has done in Punjab now. Congress Leadership in these states is hence trusting the Old Guard instead of young turks due to their unflinching loyalty to the Gandhi Family. 

TMC is currently targeting those areas where the congress is weak or the team members have lost hope in present leadership and are looking for change. Goa It is specifically targeting those regions where congress is weak. Short term, it will work but when it is positioning in other states, it certainly needs to have a strong single point agenda. BJP is clear on its Hindutva, PSU divestment, Green energy & Welfare state motives. TMC needs to first develop a core ideology which it can customize in other states. TMC will find it hard to penetrate the Hindi states since as Cong has realized that it needs to move towards the right if it has to garner votes of Hindus in the Hindi states. 

Congress has been trying to move from its secular credentials since its defeat in 2014. It realized that BJP won because it was successful in projecting congress as a Anti-Hindu party. Manmohan Singh as PM had eroded much of the gains made by the Gandhi Family till Rajiv’s time. Manmohan singh had said that the first right of a nation's resources was of the minorities. Congress realizing its mistake transformed itself in 2019 with Rahul Gandhi doing Temple visits and meeting with Ashram Heads in poll bound states.Rahul Gandhi was careful not to move much with muslim leaders.  Congress won in Rajasthan, gave a tough fight in Gujarat, won Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. It is another matter that they have lost Madhya Pradesh now with Jyotiraditya Scindia’s exit. The Scindia family is entirely with the BJP now. Congress also focused on building its organization strength. Most of the visible growth especially among the youth base in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan was led by Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot. 

Rahul Gandhi in a recent meeting expressed that he was keen that India becomes a Hindu Rashtra 2024. Congress is trying to hijack BJP’s agenda. TMC has been a strong supporter of muslims in Bengal but it had to undo that perspective before recent assembly elections. She reminded people that she was a Brahmin. She paid a monthly allowance of Rs.1000 to 8000 Hindu priests and gave 50000 rs to local clubs to organize the Durga Puja. 

The distancing of muslims has led to them seeking support from regional parties or aligning with those who give favorable responses. Gone are the days where they could make their own decisions and parties would follow them. In places where there are only BJP and Congress, they are allying with any of them who are offering them favorable responses to their demands. If a Third Front without congress has to form in India, there needs to be another party which takes the place of congress in Hindu Heartlands. Everyone expected AAP to become operational in other states but it has not been able to go beyond New Delhi and now punjab. 

Replacing or migrating congress leaders to their parties is the strategy of almost all political parties but they are not focusing on growing organically in the state. BJP did it in Bengal and did not win since it tried to grow organically taking all who were joining. This strategy obviously does not help in building a loyal organizational base. The party will be dependent on those leaders only and the followers are only following the party not the party ideology. Such parties without an ideology base cannot sustain in the long run. That model will not work. In such states, the people will prefer a strong regional leader rather than a leader who is selected by people sitting in New Delhi. 

National parties have in the past been besieged by Regional Satraps and hence they are adopting a strategy of not building strong local leaders and instead going for loyal administrators instead of mass leaders. In many states, the main campaigner for the national party is the party chief instead of local leader, reflecting the lack of popularity of local leaders. YS Rajasekhar Reddy was the last tallest leader for congress who had defied his central office stand only on Gas for the state. Congress did not give a chance to his son who went on to form his own party and brought it to power in the state. The regional parties have an advantage which national parties do not have since they are built around the charisma of the founding family. 

Family parties that are normally called lose their popularity after the death/decline of  the main founder of the party. Since family parties are also monarchies, they bring in their own family members instead of practising democracy and allowing other party members to rise. Congress is a big Family Party that has not been able to look beyond the Gandhi Family except once when Rajiv Gandhi died. TMC to achieve its national ambition to be the principal opposition for BJP has to build several mass leaders in the states where BJP & Cong are competing with each other with no third party in between as in the Hindi Heartland. Any Mass leader has to depend on the Bahujan to target the National parties since National Parties have stitched together a coalition of castes though control remains in upper castes in most states for national parties. The situation is the same even in Family party ruled states. All attempts to form a federal front will not fructify unless Samajwadi party wins the UP elections causing a visible projected dent obviously in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. A strong regional party in UP coupled with NCP-SS support in Maharashtra and its other allies can stitch a front with 200 seats without the congress. If Cong can win at least 50 seats and neutral parties remain neutral, it can still have a chance to stake claims to form the government in 2024.