Poll Consultants in India

Arvind Kejriwal even before IPAC started guiding them had successfully converted the entire votebank of Congress to AAP. His down to earth government appealed to people. IPAC helped increase the awareness of what Kejriwal was doing and helped him not just retain his vote bank but further transfer the remaining vote bank of Cong. The BJP Votebank remained stable over the decades.  Sheila Dixit did not yield Cong.Vote Bank to BJP for 13 yrs and strangely after her exit, this entire vote bank shifted to AAP. What is happening in India is the collapse of Congress and transfer of that entire vote bank to other parties. They do not want to vote for National Parties who do not promote strong local leaders. Hence Poll Consultants remain successful in transferring this permanently loyal vote bank to new parties offering change.It will be hard for any party to dislodge AAP from Punjab and Delhi. This process is still continuing in many states. There was tremendous strength already hence built into AAP’s model. IPAC gave them the jingles needed to reduce anti -incumbency and reduce opposition perception in the public eye. AAP is eyeing Gujarat. What AAP/ any other party with help of these consultants will capture eventually is declining Congress Votebank in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. In Telanganga, the Congress Vote bank is likely to go entirely to BJP. 

Poll Consultants have come into prominence ever since Barack Obama’s high power campaign using them. Wagner’s attempts at using technology yielded huge results and that became a role model for world over in utilising BIG DATA to win elections.  Most important for success to these poll consultants is direct access to the top leader without interference by anyone. The poll consultants  succeed only if they are given absolute freedom. These marketing people with absolute freedom more than the cadre are able to cross fiefdoms which Cadre cannot do if they want to communicate feedback. Being the top leader’s direct feedback loop, they do not dare to hold back from them but it reduces their overall importance in the party. For the top leader and their successors, these consultants become a strength against seniors in the party. 

Sometimes this forced imposition hurts the grassroots worker who has risen through the ranks. If they are constantly judged by technocrat poll consultants, their relevance, their fiefdoms start crumbling down. It is a new way of politics different from the way they always did it.The new generation will readily go with it but the old guard is sure to reject it. With a central dashboard, the chief minister’s office becomes all powerful, reducing the importance of other leaders. Most announcements come from the CMO office instead of respective ministries. In one way, local leaders cannot fool the high command .The new generation performer has more opportunities since his performance is being measured. The party becomes a well oiled machine but there is considerable shift of the old guard to the opposition. It results in the opposition getting more vote share, but they will never be able to form the government since the old guard has been rejected by people and the opposition only wants the CADRE, not the leaders. Mamata’s team very often complained that IPAC was bossing them around. Many hated the power of IPAC within the party. In west bengal elections, many of those who had been forewarned that they might be replaced rushed to BJP, 34 of them. BJP gave tickets to only 13 of them.

IPAC was able to help Amarinder win but in the next election, cong was nowhere. AAP completely took over congress vote share. IPAC could not deliver Uttarpradesh to UPA. It delivered a mandate to DMK.Mamata regained power, and YSRCP won elections. The party through centralization of welfare ensures that the amount goes directly to the beneficiaries bank account. In the case of Andhra Pradesh, volunteers meet the people more than the voted politicians. They collect feedback and enter into the system which is accessible to the central command. At a National Level, this centralization started in 1991 making the cabinet ministers irrelevant and every decision flowing from the National Advisory Council. The council acted as alternate cabinet making policies and Sonia as the chairman approving it. It lost its relevance when NDA came to power but NDA too started Niti Aayog. 

Now, there is news that TRS has been advised to replace majoirty of its MLAs if they want to win. Such a recommendation is concerning since it says that the party faces huge incumbency and leadership is in question as well. Many of these leaders might be inefficient but have a huge mass base and organised cadre. The key for a party is to retain them while giving chances to others to represent the party. The moment TRS announces tickets, many of the candidates who didn’t get tickets and who are confident of winning on their own will shift obviously to BJP. TRS becomes a well oiled party like TMC but it will result in BJP becoming bigger than it is currently by not just taking congress votebank but by absorption of the rejected trs leaders, the votebank of TRS. The Old guard/regional satraps are powerful leaders who command loyalty from their votebanks. Poll consultants want parties to remove them. These strong leaders take away vote share with them. 

Mamata was so focused on BJP that she did not notice the left vote bank complete shift to BJP. This vote-share is exactly what helped BJP clock 77 seats..With campaigns entirely focused on building the top leaders image only, the second and third rung leaders get ignored. At the end of the day, no political party can feed its election machinery without black money and that entirely comes from corruption. So every talk of clean administration falls back. The good thing is that with the top leader’s support, these consultants are institutionalising the welfare state model which will work even if the party is defeated. This actually helps the state since the good work will continue regardless of who is in power.  Family parties are normally weak since there is no second rung leadership at all in these parties. Family parties take care to ensure that no threat to their leadership is ever built into the party since they have to hand over to their successor and no senior should be threatening the successor. Poll consultants completely promote the Family alone reducing the threat of a second rung leader, Hence all politicians want these poll consultants to be their eyes and ears. It is a new way of being in politics.

.. Post written by Uma Desu, CEO, IntelliIndia and submitted to us.