Maharashtra, an eyeopener to other family parties

Events in Maharashtra have been the focus of all parties since what Eknath Shinde has done is wresting the party away from the Thackeray family. No one in Maharashtra can imagine Shiv Sena without Thackeray’s. Thackeray’s have widespread popularity in Maharashtra and BJP could have been taking a huge risk betraying Balasaheb’s legacy. But in one master stroke, BJP addressed several issues by making Eknath Shinde the CM. Many leaders went out of Shiv Sena in the past but Eknath Shinde’s exit carrying the Shiv Sena identity (a matter which will be sub judice soon).

NTR faced this same situation. He went to courts trying to convince that the party was established by him and he had the right over the party name and logo. The courts ruled against him.  Chandrababu took away TDP party from NTR & won in court that TDP & its logo belonged to his faction and not NTR’s. This betrayal caused severe stress to NTR & he died soon after. Chandrababu ensured that no second rung of leadership ever developed. As such, there are no tall leaders opposing his son’s rise. If Kingmaker Ramoji Rao and BJP decide someday that TDP needs to be handed over to Nandamuri Family, similar situation might happen. Not just in TDP, the risk of this happening is strong in TRS, AIADMK and even DMK parties.

If one observes 2019 elections, Shiv Sena had lost most seats allocated to it by BJP. Those seats were captured by NCP&Cong making them stronger than 2014. BJP will be contesting all those seats in 2024. Eknath Shinde will not have the bargaining power that Uddhav Thackeray had. Many of Eknath Shinde’s MLAs might also face people’s ire for betraying the Thackeray family but Eknath Shinde has a weapon- the Thackeray’s alliance with ideologically opposite NCP & Cong.  Secondly, MVA’s existence had the driver of Maratha Pride and not a Brahmin CM. NCP’s rallying cry was against PeshwaRaj being brought under a Brahmin CM. BJP has neutralized that charge by retaining CM post for a Maratha, that too from the Official Shivsena.

Thirdly, Eknath Shinde waited for long till public perception built up that Shiv Sena was swaying from its Hindutva ideology by its tieup with Cong and NCP. The deafening silence on several Hindu issues including palghar lynching affected popular perception about Shiv Sena’s transformation post its alliance with Congress.  Chandrababu allied with Congress assuming that Cong led opposition will win. Not just UPA, but TDP too received shocking defeat in 2019 elections.  Now Chandrababu is trying hard to ally with BJP. BJP top leadership is adopting a wait and watch in Andhra Pradesh. They want to become principal opposition as in other states but are waiting for TDP to weaken.

PM Modi in his public rallies in Andhra Pradesh pointed out SUNRISE in Telugu Desam being cause of its decline.  Shiv Sena today has lost its team due to Congress Alliance. The Success of Eknath Shinde carrying forward Babasaheb’s legacy will weigh heavily on India’s powerful political families controlling several states in India. If BJP can break Shiv Sena, they can break any other family party for sure.

What happened in Maharashtra can happen in Telangana too. There are many disgruntled leaders who will not accept so easily SUNRISE in TRS, DMK, TMC and other family parties too. This is a wakeup call to everyone in India, from DMK’s Stalin to TMC’s Mamata. In all parties, SUNRISE has caused heartburn in CADRE. In Mamata’s case, her nephew wields power causing Suvendu Adhikari to defect to BJP.

In 2024, how many seats can Shinde demand from BJP is a key question. Will they be able to demand more seats like Shiv Sena did last time? In those seats, they will also have to face Uddhav’s Sena. In the areas where Shinde is strong, he will carry the party flag there. But will he be able to help the rebel MLAs retain their seats in 2024 is moot question. It is crucial for BJP to ensure that Eknath Shinde’s team wins 2024 for then the perception that people are with Balasaheb’s sena but not with Uddhav Sena will go strongly into public, sealing forever Balasaheb’s legacy with Shinde team forever.