AAP Clean Sweep in MCD Delhi

New Delhi Elections

Delhi Elections are always patterned. There is not much change. Hence indifference as reflected in the weak turnout of just fifty percent. New Delhi has 87 percent literacy rate yet the voting percentage is just fifty percent. It means twelve percent less than the turnout at the assembly elections. In Delhi, the vote shares have always remained stable with just slight variations regularly.

An analysis of vote shares reflects that  AAP’S 42% took in 9% vote share from Cong and 3% from OTHERS. BJP seems to have taken three percent from the Others. In such a scenario, it is very clear that the winners will win with small margins. In both Assembly elections and MCD elections, the vote shares have witnessed steadiness. It is Cong & Independents share that is slowly being eroded.Cong has still 12 percent share which in next election will completely transfer to either Cong or to BJP.  AAP has succeeded in wresting vote share consistently from Cong in both Delhi & Punjab. By next election, it will be a clean sweep of Cong and from then onwards, it will be the continuation of AAP for 3-4 elections. We do not see any challenge to AAP in the next assembly elections too primarily because Delhi BJP does not have a leader who can take on AAP.

In Gujarat too, AAP has absorbed vote share from Cong.base giving BJP a smooth ride for the seventh time. AAP rushed into a large state like Gujarat without having the base to take it on.Apart from the freebies, it did not have much to offer to the people of Gujarat to make them think of an alternative.  Like Delhi, Gujarat too seems to be going the AAP vs BJP route. Throughout India, Cong has some hard core voter base which in many places has gone to AAP & BJP but in some places, Cong has held on to the voteshare.In Delhi it surprises that BJP could not stop the clean transfer of votes from Cong to AAP in assembly elections. Cong is nowhere in the picture in Delhi anymore.  Lutyens Delhi is now in AAP hands for at least a decade more both assembly and MCD.  It will be hard for BJP to penetrate Lutyens Delhi now that it has lost MCD too.Surprisingly, BJP scored percentage rise and wins in wards whose assembly segment AAP has won clearly indicating that people voted for local issues more particularly. In the next election, we expect further depletion of Cong.vote share. If AAP reaches 50% vote share, it will sail through couple of elections since in Delhi, it will be only between AAP&BJP. Smaller parties which wielded some influence in assembly elections are nowhere in both Assembly and MCD polls.