Indian Economy will grow to 3.5%-4%

Indian Economy will have 10 months in the current financial year to recoup. India will have a healthy Q3&Q4. India will be losing only 33 days in current financial year assuming India opens on May 3rd. Even if entire May goes into getting the supply chains into order, by June, everything will be back to normal. In that case,Q1 will certainly be hit& Q2 might face some exports decline due to declined demand in developed countries economies but domestic consumption will not decrease.

Sectors like real estate have been already on the decline even before Corona started. They might find it hard now to have new customers buy into their ventures for sometime. Banks are already too much stressed having lent to large land pool companies and hence corporate funding will be hard to come by for large projects.

Unlike USA where shopping season starts in October and just 3 months account for majority of the 70% consumer spending,Indian Private Consumption expenditure is festival based. The Ramzan month which starts on April 23rd is big retail season for Indian stores. Foreign economists who have given low rating projections should watch just one day how Indian retail works on Akshaya Tritiya which this year comes on April 26 (unfortunately still in lockdown). Following Ramzan month, Ashad Discount sales influence Indian families trips to stores and then comes the month of Sravan where again retail sales are strong. Like USA's holiday shopping, even big ticket purchases are postponed till festival shopping season starts. This is followed by Ganesh Navratri festival season in the month of Bhadrapada and then the biggest shopping season, Dusshera- Diwali Shopping. Christmas shopping starts in December first week. January-May has only harvest festivals but marriage muhurats close the gap in those months with the month of Magha being favorite. There is also some people's desire to have marriage done in Uttarayan, which starts in January. Indian marriages are a big industry and they involve several other unorganized industries. They account for majority of Indian shopping period & form the major part of private consumption expenditure of Indian GDP. They will remain intact and India will have wonderful Q2-Q3. The entire Retail market from Automobiles to FMCG brands has lot of festival shopping offers during those days.

Ramzan festival shopping will have 20 days more if economy opened on May 3rd. Unorganized workforce accounts for 90% of Indian workforce. They have survived all kinds of economic setbacks and put the economy back on track very fast. India is a huge consumers market. For ex: Religious tourism constitutes the bulk of Indian domestic tourism& contributes to double digits percentage of GDP. Western economists focus on the foreign tourist arrivals and undermine the contribution to fastest growing industry in India. Their limited understanding doesn't allow them to quantify it since their tools cannot capture the diversity in India religious tourism. Most For.economists are citizens of foreign countries and have never visited the real India where Indian GDP lies. Influenced by them during congress rule, Indian economists lost the opportunity to develop tools to encode India's cultural economic activity. These western economists are deified by Lutyens Media& the Corporates who have benefited from unbridled credit flowing their way. Corporate bankruptcies were common feature of that era. Supreme Court of India pointed that some dishonest people build companies to fail, take huge credit through political connections & immediately bankrupt and pocket the money.

We spoke with several sectors associations. We have noted the field data. We can comfortably say that Industries constituting 80% of India's GDP will grow above 3.5%. Only 20% of GDP at this moment to us might face some decline but not ZERO. This alone tells us that we are well within 4% GDP Growth margin.

India needs to change the way GDP is captured since Indian GDP is much higher than what is calculated today. India needs to change GDP definition to capture its diverse economic activity. There is huge economic activity does not get captured by current definitions of GDP. Cash businesses form bulk of unorganized industry yet is not captured since many of them do not either come under GST or under-report sales. . Beyond this is also a shadow economy. From this economy, only a marginal output gets captured in India's GDP. There is huge "Made in India" which doesnt get captured by western economic models who do not understand how India works.

Every western economist hence makes miscalculations when trying to understand India. Indian entrepreneurs and consumers will force the very same organizations which have given zero percent growth rate to revise their ratings by August with the caption "India bounces back" without ever admitting their failure the nth time. They have never understood how Indian economy works& never made the attempt to understand the same.

Foreign economists failed in detecting recession,have lost favor with Nationalists for their gross failure of pushing globalization as a panacea. Nationalists have rejected globalization and focused on "Nation First", forcing globalist economists into hiding. Paul Krugman alone humbly admitted that he & all mainstream economists never realized the huge economic & social upheaval of the middle class in America through his globalization. Chinese imports killed the employment opportunities of working class in America, Krugman admitted.

In "Foreign Policy" magazine, Paul Krugman wrote that macroeconomics of past 30 years was “spectacularly useless at best, and positively harmful at worst.” India like USA during UPA rule was influenced by Globalist's globalization agenda. Adopting it caused hyper globalization in India,affecting India's MSME sector. Indian middle class like in USA got split into upper and lower middle class. Industries were destroyed by tight credit standards while politician owned firms were given unbridled credit without any assets just based on future contracts. India ended up with $120 Bn in Bank NPAs by the time UPA's 10 year period ended.

Indian consumers & entrepreneurs will push the economy to 3.5% at the minimum,4% at Ideal and 4.5% at the best. It cannot go below 3.5% by these basic calculations. India needs to work with Nationalist Countries to develop Independent rating system which is not biased politically.